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今天给大家带来的内容是：新浪微博的穷途末路

(本文选自《经济学人》20200926期)

背景介绍：

2006年，杰克·多西在美国推出了一个微型博客类网站——推特，推特一经推出便深受人们的喜爱。三年后，被称为中国版推特的新浪微博横空出世。在此后的十余年间，新浪微博接连打败了众多竞争对手，然而自身似乎也在一步步走向没落。

Can Weibo do better than Twitter?

微博能比推特做得更好吗?

China’s microblogging giant faces ever stiffer competition for advertising revenue

这家中国微型博客巨头在广告营收上面临着愈加激烈的竞争

Three years after Twitter launched in 2006, Chinese techies created a similar microblogging service in China. Weibo (literally “microblog” in Chinese) boasted an average of 241m daily active users in March, more than Twitter.

在推特问世(2006年)的三年后，中国技术人员在中国推出了一个类似的提供微博服务的网站。今年3月，微博(“microblog”的中文字面意思)自称日活跃用户量已达2.41亿，超过了推特。

Like its American cousin, Weibo allows users to follow other users, tweet, retweet and browse a real-time list of trending topics (though it steers clear of politics, out of bounds in its communist homeland). And like Twitter, it relies heavily on advertising revenue.

与其在美国的姊妹网站(推特)一样，在新浪微博上，人们可以关注其他用户、发布博文、转发以及浏览实时热门话题(当然，也会避开政治敏感内容)。微博和推特一样，也严重依赖于广告创收。

So as coronavirus-induced uncertainty led advertisers to slash budgets, Weibo saw advertising revenue, which accounts for nearly 90% of sales, plunge. In the first quarter it fell by a fifth year on year, to $275m. Operating profit plummeted by more than half, to $58m. Delayed second-quarter results, due on September 28th, may be less terrible. China was the first to be hit by covid-19 but began to recover just as the West went into lockdown.

随着新冠肺炎疫情爆发带来的不确定性，广告主大幅削减了预算，由此导致微博占总营收90%的广告收入大幅下跌。在今年第一季度，微博广告收入同比下降了20%，至2.75亿美元。营业利润骤跌逾一半，至5800万美元。但延期至9月28日公布的第二季度业绩或许没那么糟糕了。中国是最早受疫情影响的国家，但就在西方国家进入封锁状态之际，中国已经开始走向复苏了。

But Weibo also confronts a longer-term challenge. Yujun Shao of Westwin, a Shanghai-based digital-marketing firm, notes that for much of the past decade two firms—Weibo and Tencent (which owns WeChat, a messaging service)—sucked in the vast majority of advertising spending on Chinese social media.

但微博还面临着一个长期挑战。总部位于上海的数字营销公司西窗科技的邵瑜军指出，在过去十年间的大部分时间里，中国社交媒体平台上的绝大部分广告支出都被微博和腾讯(旗下拥有即时通讯应用微信)两家公司收入囊中。

Today the “big two” are competing for ad yuan with another behemoth, ByteDance, which operates Douyin, an addictive short-video app (as well as TikTok, its global version). Other rising internet stars, such as Pinduoduo, which offers bargain shopping, are also muscling in on the advertising market.

如今，“两大巨头”正在与另一大巨头(字节跳动)争夺广告市场份额。字节跳动运营着让人一上手就停不下来的短视频应用抖音(以及抖音全球版TikTok)。其他正在崛起的互联网新星(比如通过特价购物服务的拼多多)也正在跻身广告市场。

Weibo already boasts more than half a billion registered users in China. But user growth has slowed. To keep advertisers on board, Weibo must therefore boost user engagement. The company understands this. It already sports a richer array of functions than Twitter, for example a popular question-and-answer service in the mould of Quora.

微博在中国已经拥有超过5亿的注册用户，但用户增长已经放缓。为了留住广告商，微博必须提高用户参与度。微博明白这一点，其已经拥有比推特更为丰富的功能，比如一项类似于Quora的广受欢迎的问答功能，并且微博仍在不断添加新的功能。

It is constantly adding new ones. In 2018 it acquired Yizhibo, in which people live-stream stand-up comedy, moonwalks and other acts for tips. Last year it launched a photo-sharing service akin to Instagram called Oasis.

2018年，微博收购了一直播(人们可以在一直播上直播单口相声、月球漫步或其他表演内容，从而获得观众打赏)。去年，微博还推出了一款名为绿洲的类似于Instagram的照片分享应用。

Still, Weibo’s revenues per user have been declining since 2018, and its share price with them. That is one more feature it has in common with Twitter—but is the opposite of what you would expect from a platform with strong network effects, such as Facebook.

尽管如此，微博的单用户收入自2018年以来一直在下降，其股价也随之下跌。这也是微博与推特的另一个共同点，但这与人们对具有强大网络效应的平台(比如Facebook)的预期恰恰相反。

原标题：经济学人 | 新浪微博的穷途末路

文章来源：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/GDgWN6HlX0WSq0HwguU_eQ

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